On the brink

The government of the Russian Federation, for all its supposed shortcomings, has hardly been inept in its war with Georgia, which encompasses everything from old-fashioned tanks and troops to digital assaults which, as James Jarrafano points out, may have begun well in advance of the Russian invasion. Hardly enthusiastic about Georgia's bid for NATO membership (which has been delayed since April because of the instability of South Ossetia and Abkhazia), Russia has jumped at the chance to reduce the odds of Georgia becoming a NATO member – and to interfere with its aspirations for acceptance into the EU, as globalsecurity.org explains.
But Condoleezza Rice may have put the interests of Russia best back in 2000:
“Moscow is determined to assert itself in the world and often does so in ways that are at once haphazard and threatening to American interests.”
Georgia is hardly the only nation which is directly affected by Russia's “assertion.” In the same James Jarrafano report cited earlier, he mentions that
“the widely publicized cyberassault against Estonia in 2007 increased suspicion that Russia is using online malicious activity as a tool of national policy. The assault disrupted public and private Estonian information networks with massive denial-of-service attacks. The attacks targeted the websites of Estonian banks, telecommunication companies, media outlets, and government agencies.”
As with Georgia, the digital attacks were only one component of the problem. Russia also ceased the shipment of oil to Estonia, and protesters broke into the Estonian embassy in Moscow. The root of the unrest, according to Russia, was the relocation of the Soviet war memorial in Estonia – which, in our opinion, is not a reassuring sign of Russia's earnestness in the pursuit of democracy.
Russia's real trouble with Estonia is similar to that with Georgia in that both countries constitute, in the eyes of Moscow, an effort to surround and suffocate the Russian Federation with Western influence – principally NATO and the EU – even as it attempts to expand in power. Regardless of how the situation in Georgia concludes, Russia's behavior suggests that it intends to contribute to regional and global instability for years to come.