Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts

Anywhere but Denver

We are addressing Pakistan in two successive entries for the simple reason that we feel the condition in a nation on Afghanistan's border—a nation which has long been important to the stability of the region and the progress of the war to the west—should be followed up on. Also, the Democratic National Convention means that our only two television news options are: a) turn on any major news station/website and be assaulted by hope/change/love/peace; or b) turn on the local news and be captivated by the plight of local kudzu farmers. Since both carry the threat of producing massive internal bleeding, we have opted to steer clear of the DNC entirely and discuss an issue which is actually significant.

Unfortunately, the Pakistanis are being reminded that civilian government does not necessarily mean happiness, especially when your last system of government was not a democracy. Relative stability is easy with a ruler like Musharraf in power, but easy stability comes at a price – a price deemed unacceptable by the Pakistanis, leading to the August 18th resignation. Now, the people of Pakistan are going to have to figure out very quickly how to address the rapidly expanding violence in the country and the flow of insurgents into Afghanistan.
In terms of US interests, little has occurred to indicate that Islamabad is capable of holding the country together (much less worrying about Afghanistan) as the New York Times points out:
...doubts are growing among American officials over the level of cooperation they can expect from the new army chief, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a former head of intelligence who took over the post from Mr. Musharraf last November.
After glowing initial reviews by the Americans, General Kayani has appeared less interested in how to deal with the Taliban than with the sagging morale of his undertrained, underequipped troops.
“In my view they won’t do aggressive counterinsurgency because they can’t,” said Christine Fair, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, of the Pakistani Army.
Kayani has been meeting with Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and there are hints of progress. The trouble is, the current US-Pakistan dialogue may change once Pakistan's new president is elected – as the Pakistani army chief has said himself, it is now the army's job to serve the civilian government, and Pakistan's competence against the Taliban only goes so far as the competence of its next president, who will be elected on September 6. Although the current Pakistan Peoples Party co-chairman, Asif Ali Zardari, was initially seen as a likely candidate, an August 29 article in The Australian suggests he may withdraw from the race, opening a window for his sister, Faryal Talpur (see previous entry).

Meet the candidates!

According to an Aug. 19th article in the Hindustan Times, the resignation of Pervez Musharaff was widely viewed as an improvement by Pakistanis (who we suspect may have just been waiting for a chance to party-when your day is filled with such banalities as throwing acid in women's faces, you've just got to have a release).
"The coalition partners said, the "exit of Musharraf would result in political stability". The surge in the stock market and jubilation in the streets proved that the "people of Pakistan regarded the dictatorship of Gen Musharraf as a stumbling block".
In any case, not everyone is so thrilled. Pakistan's condition is certainly deplorable-it was rated the 9th most failed state in 2008 by Foreign Policy mag-but there are eight higher positions on that list, and it is not inconceivable that if the Pakistanis aren't careful with who they select as the new president, they could move up in the ratings.
Who are a few of the potential candidates for the Pakistani presidency? According to the same article in the Hindustan Times:
Among the leaders being tipped for the post are National Assembly Speaker Fehmida Mirza, ANP chief Asfandyar Wali Khan and Zardari's sister and PPP lawmaker Faryal Talpur.
Now, Pakistan has long subscribed to the tried-and-true method of electing leaders based on bloodlines rather than actual ability. According to the prevailing Pakistani mindset, who a politician is related to is just as important-if not more so-than what experience they have. This system helps to weed out the undesirable candidates, leaving only the best-bred to rule. But, we're going to humor the West and list those funny little things the democratically successful world likes to call "qualifications":
Fehmida Mirza
Dr. Fehmida Mirza, born on December 20, 1956 in Karachi, is an agriculturist and business woman by profession and is politically affiliated with the PPPP. She was previously elected MNA in 1997.Dr. Fehmida Mirza did her M.B.B.S degree from Liaquat Medical College, Jamshoro in the year 1982. Married, with two sons and two daughters, she has travelled to U.S.A, U.K, Canada, Switzerland, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand. She enjoys reading. (source:http://www.elections.com.pk/candidatedetails.php?id=1569)
Asfandyar Wali Khan
Asfandyar Wali, the elected president of ANP, is also heir to the legacy of Ghaffar Khan. An astute politician, he has been an elected senator since 2003. Previously, he served in the NWFP provincial assembly (1990) and two national assemblies of Pakistan (1993, 1997).
(For the full text of an outstanding background of Asfadyar Wali by Hassan Abbas, click here)
Faryal Talpur
Faryal Talpur is a Member National Assembly. She previously ran in the 2007 presidential election as a Pakistani Peoples' Party candidate. (source:http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=126119)

There are other potential candidates, of course, and the next president will likely come from the Pakistani People's Party. For better or for worse, the new leader will be elected within 30 days of Musharraf's resignation, according to the Pakistani constitution.

AUGUST 25 UPDATE:
For an article from the Cato Institute on Pakistan after Musharraf, follow this link.